Inflation, Interest and Equity markets

股票市场的游说者，你们错了！
by Joe Chang

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_50c88c400101quvl.html

Market Interest rates = benchmark interest rates + expected inflation

DCF uses market interest rates as discount rates.

When you have high inflation, even though the economy is doing well, you can still have bear equity market because the discount rates, due to high inflation rates, is too high. This is evidenced by research by Warren Buffett.

Right now, China has very high inflation rates, because Chinese government has printed too much money to revive economic growth. This leads to low efficiency in money allocation. SOEs can borrow money easily, while private companies are hard to borrow.

【 財經 】調查顯示中國民間借貸利率平均23.5% 2014-05-29 20:10:02

http://finance.sina.com.hk/news/-33452-6731337/1.html

According to the research, average private lending rate is 23.5% while bank lending rate is 7.3%. The huge gap gives SOEs unfair advantages over private companies. When SOEs are borrowing cheaply, it is at the cost of the public. Inefficient investment causes overcapacity across industry.

To expect a healthy economy, instead of lowing interest rates or easing reserve requirement, interest rates should be raised, and private company should be able to compete in a fair game.


http://www.appledaily.com.tw/realtimenews/article/new/20140424/385229/
跟通膨關聯度高　美股還有得漲


PE is inversely correlated with inflation, evidenced in USA
http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Inflation-and-PE.pdf

Scattered chart perceives tailed risk of inflation. When inflation is too high or when inflation is negative(deflation), PE are low. When inflation is between 0%-5%, PE are high. When inflation is within 2-3% range, PE is the highest(22x)


What the Gap Between CPI and PCE Means for Fed Overshooting
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/06/20/what-the-gap-between-cpi-and-pce-means-for-fed-overshooting/
PCE(Personal consumption expenditure) is highly correlated with CPI.